One page: what our product actually earns, and what each of the three viable locations does to that number. All figures from the verified data in the Evidence Report (§06b holds the methods). New to the analysis? Start with the three ideas in pictures.
Measured on Huxberry's real buying prices — SpringTech's selling price to Huxberry Trading, validated line-by-line against the intercompany orders (99.2% of revenue costed). MEASURED
| The monthly engine (SZR store, annualized from Feb–Aug 2026) | AED / month | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Mattress revenue | ~207,000 | MEASURED |
| − Cost of goods (transfer prices, 29.9%) | −62,000 | MEASURED |
| = Mattress gross profit | 145,000 | 70.1% margin |
| − Mattress advertising (Google + Meta, kitchens excluded) | −25,000 | MEASURED range 17–30k by allocation |
| = Mattress contribution | 120,000 | |
| + Beds & headboards gross profit | +18,000 | MEASURED |
| + Bedding & accessories contribution (pillows, protectors, toppers — 64.1% margin, after its ~2,000 of ads) | +18,000 | MEASURED SZR share incl. half of unattributed online |
| = THE ENGINE — gross profit available each month | ≈156,000 | range ~145–165k |
So the arithmetic every option must survive: ≈156k of monthly gross profit − rent − direct costs (open item) = net result. Whatever sofas and kitchens add comes on top — sofas demonstrably sell from Festival Plaza, and kitchens net of their required staffing is roughly zero today; bedding is now measured and inside the engine. The engine is the money; everything else is upside to be proven. ANALYSIS
This is also why the landlord's 2M renewal (167k/month) is eliminated before the shortlist: it exceeds the entire engine before one salary is paid. Full method, scenarios and caveats: Evidence Report §06b. Bedding notes: 100% of bedding revenue costed at transfer prices; ~20% rests on older transfer prices (no fresher exists in the ERP); AED 16.6k of mattress encasements stay counted under mattresses — nothing is double-counted.
Each case assumes the gross profitability above holds at the new address — that assumption itself is one of the "must be true" items.
Same engine, same measurement — the only difference between the three numbers is rent. Rajiv's direct monthly cost then subtracts from each equally (Eiffel's compact team likely somewhat less).
| 🛏️ Mattress & bed revenue — MEASURED | |
| Monthly revenue — mattresses ~207,000 + beds ~34,000 | ≈241,000 |
| − Cost of goods (SpringTech transfer prices) | −78,000 |
| = Gross profit (mattresses at 70.1%, beds at 53.5%) | 163,000 |
| − Mattress advertising (Google + Meta, kitchens excluded) | −25,000 |
| + Bedding & accessories contribution — 64.1% margin, measured (pillows, protectors, toppers) | +18,000 |
| = The engine — mattresses + beds + bedding, after advertising | ≈156,000 |
| 🛋️ Sofas — floor available in this store | |
| The category currently sells ~55,000/month of revenue, keyed at Festival Plaza; what a display here adds is unmeasured | + $ TBD |
| − Sofa direct costs — none beyond the shared store team (sold by the same salespeople) | ≈ 0 |
| 🍳 Kitchens — conditional in this store | |
| Requires combining to 7,000 sq ft AND the designer hires + factory capacity fix; net ≈ zero today without them | + $ TBD |
| − Kitchen direct costs — senior sales designer ~20,000 + support designer ~7,000/month + commission (Rajiv's figures, Principal's Review §C) | −27,000 further discussion |
| Store total | |
| = All categories together (kitchens net of their own designers) | 156,000 + $ TBD |
| − Occupancy | −68,000 |
| = PROFITABILITY EXCLUDING DIRECT MONTHLY COSTS — the last measured line | 88,000 / month (≈1,056,000 / yr) + $ TBD |
| − Direct monthly costs (store team, deliveries, fees) — TO BE ADDED · open item, Rajiv | − ? |
| = Net profitability — computable the day the direct-cost number arrives | ? |
| 🛏️ Mattress & bed revenue — MEASURED | |
| Monthly revenue — mattresses ~207,000 + beds ~34,000 | ≈241,000 |
| − Cost of goods (SpringTech transfer prices) | −78,000 |
| = Gross profit (mattresses at 70.1%, beds at 53.5%) | 163,000 |
| − Mattress advertising (Google + Meta, kitchens excluded) | −25,000 |
| + Bedding & accessories contribution — 64.1% margin, measured (pillows, protectors, toppers) | +18,000 |
| = The engine — mattresses + beds + bedding, after advertising — if it holds in half the space | ≈156,000 |
| 🛋️ Sofas — ✕ not in this store | |
| No sofa floor — the category stays at Festival Plaza, where it demonstrably sells (~55,000/month revenue) | ✕ |
| 🍳 Kitchens — ✕ exited with this choice | |
| The kitchens line (AED 1.06M/yr revenue) closes; its lead-gen ad budget is redeployed | ✕ |
| Store total | |
| = All categories together — complete; no further categories fit this store | ≈156,000 |
| − Occupancy (no fit-out — fitted, opens fast) | −79,000 |
| = PROFITABILITY EXCLUDING DIRECT MONTHLY COSTS — the last measured line (11,000/month behind Al Joud, on the same engine) | 77,000 / month (≈924,000 / yr) |
| − Direct monthly costs (compact-format team, deliveries, fees) — TO BE ADDED · open item, Rajiv; likely lower than a full-size store's, which partly offsets the higher rent | − ? |
| = Net profitability — computable the day the direct-cost number arrives | ? |
| Upside not counted: the premium-ticket thesis (SZR median ticket is 48% above DFP's) growing the engine; zero dark months | + |
| 🛏️ Mattress & bed revenue — MEASURED | |
| Monthly revenue — mattresses ~207,000 + beds ~34,000 | ≈241,000 |
| − Cost of goods (SpringTech transfer prices) | −78,000 |
| = Gross profit (mattresses at 70.1%, beds at 53.5%) | 163,000 |
| − Mattress advertising (Google + Meta, kitchens excluded) | −25,000 |
| + Bedding & accessories contribution — 64.1% margin, measured (pillows, protectors, toppers) | +18,000 |
| = The engine — mattresses + beds + bedding, after advertising | ≈156,000 |
| 🛋️ Sofas — dedicated floor in this store | |
| The category currently sells ~55,000/month of revenue, keyed at Festival Plaza; what dedicated floor here adds is unmeasured | + $ TBD |
| − Sofa direct costs — none beyond the shared store team (sold by the same salespeople) | ≈ 0 |
| 🍳 Kitchens — dedicated floor in this store | |
| Possible with the designer hires + factory capacity fix; net ≈ zero today without them | + $ TBD |
| − Kitchen direct costs — senior sales designer ~20,000 + support designer ~7,000/month + commission (Rajiv's figures, Principal's Review §C) | −27,000 further discussion |
| Store total | |
| = All categories together (kitchens net of their own designers) — the extra floor must clear ~59,000/month (Part 2b) | 156,000 + $ TBD |
| − Occupancy | −111,000 |
| = PROFITABILITY EXCLUDING DIRECT MONTHLY COSTS — the last measured line | 45,000 / month (≈540,000 / yr) + $ TBD |
| − Direct monthly costs (full-size team, deliveries, fees) — TO BE ADDED · open item, Rajiv; broadly the same bill as Al Joud's, since both are full-size stores | − ? |
| = Net profitability — computable the day the direct-cost number arrives | ? |
| The measured gap that needs no estimate: this option starts 43,000/month behind Al Joud on identical direct costs — pure rent difference. The category stack (bedding, sofas, kitchens net of staffing, cluster walk-ins) must close that gap before it adds anything | −43,000 vs Option 1 |
The tables above load each option's entire rent onto the same mattress-and-beds engine. That is conservative, but asymmetric: the larger stores' extra floor exists to sell more products, which the engine number gives them no credit for. The fair split: the engine needs only ~2,400 sq ft to run (the compact format proves it), so charge the engine that much floor at each option's rate — and treat the remaining floor as its own mini business case: its share of rent is the monthly hurdle its extra products must clear. ANALYSIS
| Option | All-in rate AED/sq ft/yr | Engine floor cost (2,400 sq ft) | Engine profitability on its own floor | Extra floor | Hurdle: what the extra products must earn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Joud (3,833 sq ft) | 212 | −42,000/mo | 114,000/mo | 1,433 sq ft | 25,000/mo |
| Umm Suqeim frontage (5,138 sq ft @ neg. 1.2M) | 260 | −52,000/mo | 104,000/mo | 2,738 sq ft | 59,000/mo |
| Eiffel (2,400 sq ft @ written 950k) | 396 | −79,000/mo | 77,000/mo | none | — (no room for more products) |
The model: the mattress division's contribution (≈156,000/month) travels with the business, not the building. Fix its assigned profit at Eiffel's 77,000/month — then the division can fund up to 79,000/month of rent wherever it sits. Whatever rent remains, plus the other divisions' own direct costs, is the profitability the remaining square footage must deliver. ANALYSIS
| Option | Occupancy /mo | Rent left after the mattress division's 79,000 | Direct costs of those divisions | Required monthly profitability from the remaining sq ft |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eiffel @ written 950k | 79,000 | 0 | — | — no remaining floor; this is the baseline |
| Al Joud (1,433 sq ft remaining) | 68,000 | −11,000 (over-covered) | Kitchens −27,000 (further discussion) only if activated; sofas ≈ 0 | Zero. The mattress division alone covers the whole rent with 11,000 spare. Sofas at zero still beat the Eiffel bar; kitchens need only self-fund their own 27,000 |
| Umm Suqeim frontage (2,738 sq ft remaining) | 111,000 | 32,000 | Kitchens −27,000 (further discussion) if activated; sofas ≈ 0 | 32,000/mo net of divisional costs. Sofas-only: ≥32,000 of gross profit ≈ ~50,000/month of sofa revenue at the measured 64.6% sofa margin — roughly what Festival Plaza already sells. With kitchens activated: sofas + kitchens gross profit ≥ 59,000/mo (32,000 + the 27,000 designers) |
Two asymmetries to hold alongside this: Eiffel's 77,000 assumes the engine survives in half the space — the untested bet the bigger stores don't carry; and Eiffel's compact team likely costs less to run, which would shift the bar somewhat — Rajiv's direct-cost sheet settles that.
The bottom line: Al Joud wins on measured money under every lens — 88k/month before direct costs, and it beats the Eiffel bar with its extra floor earning nothing. Eiffel is viable only at a written 950k, and only if a half-size store keeps full-size mattress sales. Umm Suqeim must first pass a site visit, then sell a Festival-Plaza's-worth of sofas just to tie the other two. Three ground checks — the Al Joud fit-out quote and walkthrough, the written Eiffel counter, the Umm Suqeim site visit — settle all of it in days. ANALYSIS